Weekly Blueberry Market Brief — Week 23
Blueberry Market Insights Brief — Week 23
Highlights
- Frost hit Central FL (Ripening), Southeast GA (Ripening), Bladen County NC (Fruit Set), Corning CA (Fruit Set), Hammonton NJ (Fruit Set), SW (Van Buren) MI (Bloom), NW Washington WA (Bud Break)
- High pollination risk: SW (Van Buren) MI
- Chill deficit: Fresno CA (0%), Corning CA (76%)
- Rain damage: San Quintín Mexico, Central FL, Southeast GA, Fresno CA, Watsonville CA, Corning CA, Hammonton NJ, SW (Van Buren) MI, Prosser WA
Top Movers by Market Impact
Source: Open-Meteo GDD + USDA NASS supply weights
- Watsonville, CA: 51d ahead (18M lbs fresh, 5% of domestic)
- Willamette Valley, OR: 11d ahead (58M lbs fresh, 15% of domestic)
- Bakersfield, CA: 19d ahead (20M lbs fresh, 5% of domestic)
- Corning, CA: 18d ahead (14M lbs fresh, 4% of domestic)
- SW (Van Buren), MI: 5d ahead (38M lbs fresh, 10% of domestic)
> Action: Review labor crew timing — your harvest window may need to shift. Coordinate with your labor provider to adjust arrival dates.
Changes Since Last Week
- Bakersfield CA entered Ripening (was Fruit Set)
- SW (Van Buren) MI entered Bloom (was Bud Break)
This Week
- Central FL: +110 GDD this week — 2d behind
- Southeast GA: +97 GDD this week — 2d behind
- Bladen County NC: +83 GDD this week — 1d behind
- Bakersfield CA: +90 GDD this week — 19d ahead
- Watsonville CA: +42 GDD this week — 51d ahead
Frost Impact
Source: Open-Meteo daily observed temps
- 2 regions hit by frost this season
- Southeast GA: High frost at Bud Break (27°F on Feb 24) (20.2% of domestic fresh supply)
- Central FL: 2 frost days during Bud Break (Feb 1-2, low 22°F) (5.8% of domestic fresh supply)
> Action: Assess bloom/bud damage within 48 hours and document affected blocks with photos. If you carry crop insurance (APH/WFRP): notify your agent within 72 hours — do not destroy damaged crop before adjuster inspection.
Pollination Impact
Source: Open-Meteo observed temps, bee flight model
- 1 region with High pollination risk this season
- Worst: SW (Van Buren) MI (10.1% of domestic fresh supply)
> Action: Supplemental pollination options: increase hive density (2-4 hives/acre), deploy bumble bee boxes, or rent mason bees for early/cool bloom conditions.
Rain Impact
Source: Open-Meteo daily observed precipitation
- 1 region hit by significant rain
- Southeast GA: 4 rain days during Ripening (May 28 – Jun 2, total 1.6″, peak 0.8″) (20.2% of domestic fresh supply)
> Action: Harvest ripe fruit immediately before next rain event. Rain splitting causes $300-500/acre losses. Consider Parka cuticle treatment for remaining fruit.
Overlap Pressure Index (OPI)
The OPI estimates how many pounds of fresh blueberries are hitting the market in the same weeks across all tracked regions. When multiple regions harvest simultaneously, the supply glut compresses FOB pricing — growers become price-takers. A higher OPI means more overlap and more pricing pressure. (For context, the 2023 cherry season saw ~70% of US volume land in a single month, collapsing FOB prices and leaving ~35% of the crop unharvested.)
Source: Open-Meteo GDD projections + USDA NASS production weights + USDA FAS import volumes
- Supply overlap trending 4% below historical average — Risk: Medium
- Current peak OPI: 339M lbs (week 26)
- Historical peak: 355M lbs
- Peak window: weeks 17–34 (Apr–Aug)
> Action: Monitor weekly. If OPI continues to climb, discuss diversion strategy with your processor before peak window.
Chill Risk
Source: Open-Meteo hourly temps, Utah model (Richardson 1974)
- Chill % of target needed for normal bloom — below 90% risks delayed/uneven flowering, below 70% risks reduced fruit set
- Regions at risk: San Quintín Mexico (10%, 0% fresh); Fresno CA (0%); Corning CA (76%, 4% fresh)
> Action: Low chill may cause staggered bloom timing and reduced fruit set. Expect an extended harvest window with lower peak volumes.
Season Pattern
Source: RMSE across 4 historical years, supply-weighted
- This season's supply trajectory most closely resembles 2025 (52% similarity), when FOB data limited
- Key driver: early CA start
Generated from innov8.ag Market Insights Dashboard. Supply weights: USDA NASS 2023. Import data: USDA FAS.
Disclaimer: Using AI tools is a lot like farming — the best laid plans don't always get you the outcome you planned on. And similar to Mother Nature, AI has a way of humbling us when we least expect it. This brief is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, agronomic, or insurance advice. We're building in the open, so if something looks off, tell us — visit [innov8.ag/market-insights](https://innov8.ag/market-insights) to share feedback or forward to a colleague.
Top Movers by Market Impact
- Watsonville, CA: 51d ahead — 17.5M lbs fresh (4.6% of domestic)
- Willamette Valley, OR: 11d ahead — 58.1M lbs fresh (15.4% of domestic)
- Bakersfield, CA: 19d ahead — 20.2M lbs fresh (5.4% of domestic)
- Corning, CA: 18d ahead — 14.3M lbs fresh (3.8% of domestic)
- SW (Van Buren), MI: 5d ahead — 38.0M lbs fresh (10.1% of domestic)
Overlap Pressure Index
Risk level: Medium. Peak OPI: 339M lbs at week 26 (historical: 355M lbs).
Season Pattern
This season most resembles 2025 (52% similarity). FOB data limited. Key driver: early CA start.
Data sources: USDA NASS, USDA FAS, USDA AMS FOB, Open-Meteo, IBO. Updated daily at innov8.ag/market-insights.