Market Insights

Name: US Blueberry Market Timing Intelligence — Week 16, 2026
Creator: innov8.ag
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/

Weekly intelligence on harvest timing, supply overlap, and pricing pressure — plan labor, sales, and logistics before the market moves.

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Crop Alert — 4 high, 2 medium across 2 regions7-day forecast

Bladen County NC

Heat — bees grounded · Bloom · Fri, Apr 17

89.2°F

Bladen County NC

Pollen heat stress · Bloom · Sat, Apr 18

93°F

Bladen County NC

Heat — bees grounded · Bloom · Sat, Apr 18

88.9°F

Updated Apr 10 at 11:05 PM

USA+

Season:

Data as of Apr 17 06:02 AM UTC| Refresh in 29m

⚠

Upgrading to station-level weather data

We're migrating from gridded weather models to real weather station data from AgWeatherNet, AgriMet, CIMIS, and other state networks for more accurate frost detection and growth stage tracking. Some regions may show temporary data gaps during this transition.

Region Map

Stage:DormantBud BreakBloomFruit SetRipeningHarvest

Status:AheadOn TrackBehindFrost alert

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Blueberry Market Brief

Overlap: Low

Week 16

Action Needed Monitor Context

Top Movers

Top Movers: MI 24d ahead (10.1% of domestic fresh), accelerating. Watsonville, CA 37d ahead (4.6% of domestic fresh). Bakersfield, CA 31d ahead (5.4% of domestic fresh).

Review labor crew timing — your harvest window may need to shift. Coordinate with your labor provider to adjust arrival dates.

Changes This Past Week

Changes This Week: Corning CA entered Fruit Set (was Bloom). SW (Van Buren) MI shifted 5d further ahead this week. Traverse City MI shifted 5d further ahead this week. Willamette Valley OR shifted 9d falling behind this week.

Week Ahead

Frost Watch: 1 region with frost risk in 7-day forecast (worst: SW (Van Buren) MI, Dormant). Monitor conditions closely.

Assess bloom/bud damage within 48 hours and document affected blocks with photos. If you carry crop insurance (APH/WFRP): notify your agent within 72 hours — do not destroy damaged crop before adjuster inspection.

This Week: Prosser WA: +24 GDD this week (+1 vs avg) — 16d ahead. Corning CA: +38 GDD this week (-2 vs avg) — 26d ahead. Southeast GA: +87 GDD this week (+11 vs avg) — 3d ahead.

Season Events

Pollination Impact: 2 regions with Medium pollination risk this season. Worst: Bladen County NC — 19 good bee-flight days during bloom (needs 10). 10.7% of domestic fresh supply.

Supplemental pollination options: increase hive density (2-4 hives/acre), deploy bumble bee boxes, or rent mason bees for early/cool bloom conditions.

Frost Impact: 6 regions hit by frost this season. Southeast GA: frost at Bud Break (27°F on Feb 24) — 20.2% of domestic fresh supply; Central FL: 2 frost days during Bud Break (Feb 1-2, low 22°F) — 5.8% of domestic fresh supply.

Rain Impact: 6 regions hit by significant rain during Bloom. Worst: Corning CA: 4 rain days during Bloom (Apr 9-12, total 2.5″, peak 0.9″). 3.8% of domestic fresh supply.

Harvest ripe fruit immediately before next rain event. Rain splitting causes $300-500/acre losses. Consider Parka cuticle treatment for remaining fruit.

Market Context

Overlap Pressure: Supply overlap trending 11% below historical average. Peak projected weeks 15–37 (Apr–Sep).

Import Context: Active import supply: Mexico 15% of US fresh (peak).

FOB Reference: FOB averaged ~$20 $/flat 12 1-pt during peak weeks 15–37. 2022: ~$22 (+10% vs avg). 2024: ~$20. Source: USDA AMS.

Overlap-Price Signal: Overlap trending below historical average — similar to 2022 pattern, when staggered harvest supported FOB 10% above average.

Chill Risk: Winter chill % of target needed for normal bloom — below 90% risks delayed or uneven flowering, below 70% risks reduced fruit set. Corning CA (76% of target, 3.8% of domestic fresh supply). Dormancy ended — deficit locked in.

Low chill may cause staggered bloom timing and reduced fruit set. Expect an extended harvest window with lower peak volumes.

A 7+ day shift means your crew schedule may not match your harvest window. Block-by-block reallocation requires real-time pick data. See how →

This analysis uses regional weather data. Your orchard’s microclimate, elevation, and canopy may shift actual timing 5+ days from these estimates. The gap between regional signals and block-level reality is where on-farm data earns its ROI.

Sources:USDA NASS 2023 IBO Nov 2023 USDA AMS FOB USDA FAS HortScience 2012 Open-Meteo

This Market Insights brief is copyrighted by innov8.ag

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Region Overview

Region	Supply Wt	Stage	GDD Pace (±days)	Status	GDD Delta	Overlap
Central FL Emerald, Jewel FAWN Alachua	Low	Fruit Set	0d	On Track	-35
Southeast GA Star, Farthing GAEMN	High	Fruit Set	+3d	On Track	-18
Bakersfield CA Emerald CIMIS Bakersfield	Medium (est.)	Fruit Set	+31d	Ahead	+377
Watsonville CA Emerald, Draper CIMIS Watsonville	Medium (est.)	Fruit Set	+37d	Ahead	+231
Fresno CA Emerald, Jewel CIMIS Parlier	—	Dormant	0d	Loading	0	—
Bladen County NC Star, Farthing ECONet Whiteville	Medium	Bloom	+6d	Ahead	+52
Corning CA Draper, Aurora CIMIS Durham	Medium (est.)	Bloom – Fruit Set	+26d	Ahead	+267
Willamette Valley OR Duke, Draper, Bluecrop, Liberty, Aurora, Elliott AgriMet Corvallis	High	Dormant	+6d	Ahead	+15
Hammonton NJ Duke, Bluecrop NJWxNet	Medium	Bud Break	+13d	Ahead	+67
SW (Van Buren) MI Bluecrop, Elliott EnviroWeather	Medium (est.)	Dormant	+24d	Ahead	+92
Prosser WA Duke, Bluecrop, Liberty, Draper, Aurora, Elliott, Last Call AWN Prosser	Medium (est.)	Dormant – Bud Break	+16d	Ahead	+86
NW Washington WA Duke, Bluecrop, Liberty, Draper, Aurora, Elliott, Last Call AWN Mt Vernon	Medium (est.)	Dormant	-17d	Behind	-43
Traverse City MI Bluecrop, Jersey EnviroWeather	Low (est.)	Dormant	+14d	Ahead	+11
Peru import 32% of US fresh Wk 32–8 (325.0M lbs)
Mexico import 15% of US fresh Wk 6–22 (150.0M lbs) In Peak
Chile import 9% of US fresh Wk 48–10 (87.0M lbs)

Supply Overlap Heatmap

Cell intensity = supply weight during active harvest. Bottom row = total Overlap Pressure Index (M lbs fresh).

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Central, FL

Watsonville, CA

Bakersfield, CA

Southeast, GA

Corning, CA

Bladen County, NC

Hammonton, NJ

Willamette Valley, OR

Traverse City, MI

SW (Van Buren), MI

Prosser, WA

NW Washington, WA

Peru

Mexico

Chile

Total OPI

146

160

200

199

294

293

265

256

318

224

241

227

187

193

194

195

158

159

160

150

112

High supply Low supply Peak import Low import Peak OPI Low OPI Current week

Harvest Timeline & Historical Pricing

Gray = typical window | Colored = GDD-projected | Red line = today | FOB prices: solid line = 3yr avg, shaded band = year-to-year range | Hover any region for details

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Frost & Rain Events

Type	Region	Dates	Days	Impact	Stage	Severity	GDD Range
Rain	Bakersfield — CA	Apr 12	1	0.2″	Fruit Set	Moderate	—
Rain	Watsonville — CA	Apr 10-12	3	1.2″	Bloom	High	—
Rain	Corning — CA	Apr 9-12	4	2.5″	Bloom	Extreme	—
Frost	SW (Van Buren) — MI	Apr 11	1	Low 32F (0.0C)	Dormant	Moderate	90
Frost	Hammonton — NJ	Apr 8-9	2	Low 28F (-2.2C)	Bud Break	Moderate	154
Frost	SW (Van Buren) — MI	Apr 6-8	3	Low 23F (-5.0C)	Dormant	Extreme	81
Rain	Central — FL	Apr 7	1	0.4″	Fruit Set	Moderate	—
Rain	Bladen County — NC	Apr 5	1	0.4″	Bloom	Moderate	—
Rain	Central — FL	Apr 3	1	0.3″	Fruit Set	Moderate	—
Rain	Corning — CA	Mar 31	1	0.4″	Bloom	Moderate	—
Frost	Hammonton — NJ	Mar 29	1	Low 26F (-3.3C)	Dormant	High	87
Frost	SW (Van Buren) — MI	Mar 27-28	2	Low 24F (-4.4C)	Dormant	Extreme	53
Frost	Prosser — WA	Mar 27	1	Low 32F (0.0C)	Dormant	Moderate	94
Frost	Willamette Valley — OR	Mar 26	1	Low 31F (-0.6C)	Dormant	Moderate	77
Frost	Hammonton — NJ	Mar 24	1	Low 31F (-0.6C)	Dormant	Moderate	73
Frost	SW (Van Buren) — MI	Mar 23-24	2	Low 23F (-5.0C)	Dormant	Extreme	45
Frost	Hammonton — NJ	Mar 17-19	3	Low 24F (-4.4C)	Dormant	Extreme	59
Frost	Bladen County — NC	Mar 18	1	Low 31F (-0.6C)	Bud Break	Moderate	297
Rain	Central — FL	Mar 15-16	2	1.3″	Bloom	Extreme	—
Rain	Southeast — GA	Mar 16	1	0.3″	Bloom	Moderate	—
Frost	Hammonton — NJ	Mar 13	1	Low 25F (-3.9C)	Dormant	High	51
Rain	Central — FL	Mar 12	1	0.3″	Bloom	Moderate	—
Rain	Central — FL	Mar 8	1	0.2″	Bloom	Moderate	—
Rain	Central — FL	Mar 5	1	0.3″	Bloom	Moderate	—
Rain	Central — FL	Feb 27	1	0.4″	Bloom	Moderate	—
Frost	Central — FL	Feb 24	1	Low 30F (-1.1C)	Bud Break	Moderate	356
Frost	Southeast — GA	Feb 24	1	Low 27F (-2.8C)	Bud Break	High	254
Frost	Bladen County — NC	Feb 23-24	2	Low 27F (-2.8C)	Dormant	High	120
Frost	Corning — CA	Feb 20	1	Low 28F (-2.2C)	Dormant	High	173
Frost	Bladen County — NC	Feb 13-14	2	Low 26F (-3.3C)	Dormant	High	70
Frost	Bladen County — NC	Jan 24 – Feb 10	17	Low 14F (-10.0C)	Dormant	Extreme	60–62
Frost	Southeast — GA	Feb 6	1	Low 31F (-0.6C)	Dormant	Moderate	129
Frost	Central — FL	Jan 27 – Feb 3	7	Low 22F (-5.6C)	Bud Break	Extreme	188–191
Frost	Southeast — GA	Jan 27 – Feb 3	8	Low 21F (-6.1C)	Dormant	Extreme	122–123
Frost	Southeast — GA	Jan 19-21	3	Low 29F (-1.7C)	Dormant	Moderate	94
Frost	Bladen County — NC	Jan 19-21	3	Low 24F (-4.4C)	Dormant	Extreme	54
Frost	Central — FL	Jan 19	1	Low 29F (-1.7C)	Dormant	Moderate	131
Frost	Central — FL	Jan 16	1	Low 27F (-2.8C)	Dormant	High	125
Frost	Southeast — GA	Jan 16	1	Low 21F (-6.1C)	Dormant	Extreme	90
Frost	Bladen County — NC	Jan 12-16	4	Low 22F (-5.6C)	Dormant	Extreme	52
Frost	Southeast — GA	Jan 12-13	2	Low 32F (0.0C)	Dormant	Moderate	89–90

GDD Accumulation

Central — FL

Emerald, Jewel

FAWN Alachua

Fruit Set

On Track

GDD: 1,040Avg: 1,075-354 frost clusters (10d)7 rain clusters (8d)

Compare:

GDD: MSU/HortScience calibrated (base 45F)

Southeast — GA

Star, Farthing

GAEMN

Fruit Set

On Track

GDD: 834Avg: 869-186 frost clusters (16d)Rain: 7mm on Mar 16 (Bloom)

Compare:

GDD: MSU/HortScience calibrated (base 45F)

Bladen County — NC

Star, Farthing

ECONet Whiteville

Bloom

Ahead

Heat — BloomFri, Apr 17 · 89.2°F

Pollen Heat StressSat, Apr 18 · 93°F

+2 more alerts

Updated Apr 11 at 6:05 AM UTC

GDD: 629Avg: 577+526 frost clusters (29d)Rain: 11mm on Apr 5 (Bloom)

Compare:

GDD: MSU/HortScience calibrated (base 45F)

Bakersfield — CA

Emerald

CIMIS Bakersfield

Corning — CA

Simple Chill Hours761 / 1,000

76%

Simple Chill Hours2,111 / 1,000

100%

Utah Model Units1,772 / 1,100

100%

Weekly Blueberry Market Brief — Week 16

Blueberry Market Insights Brief — Week 16

Highlights

- Frost hit Central FL (Fruit Set), Southeast GA (Fruit Set), Bladen County NC (Bloom), Corning CA (Bloom), Hammonton NJ (Bud Break)

- Chill deficit: Fresno CA (0%), Corning CA (76%)

- Rain damage: San Quintín Mexico, Central FL, Southeast GA, Watsonville CA, Corning CA

- Watsonville CA running 57d ahead of average

Top Movers by Market Impact

Source: Open-Meteo GDD + USDA NASS supply weights

- Watsonville, CA: 57d ahead (18M lbs fresh, 5% of domestic)

- SW (Van Buren), MI: 20d ahead (38M lbs fresh, 10% of domestic)

- Willamette Valley, OR: 13d ahead (58M lbs fresh, 15% of domestic)

- Bakersfield, CA: 29d ahead (20M lbs fresh, 5% of domestic)

- Corning, CA: 30d ahead (14M lbs fresh, 4% of domestic)

> Action: Review labor crew timing — your harvest window may need to shift. Coordinate with your labor provider to adjust arrival dates.

Changes Since Last Week

- Willamette Valley OR entered Bud Break (was Dormant)

This Week

- Central FL: +81 GDD this week — 2d behind

- Southeast GA: +87 GDD this week — on track

- Bladen County NC: +85 GDD this week — 1d ahead

- Bakersfield CA: +58 GDD this week — 29d ahead

- Watsonville CA: +35 GDD this week — 57d ahead

Frost Impact

Source: Open-Meteo daily observed temps

- 2 regions hit by frost this season

- Southeast GA: High frost at Bud Break (27°F on Feb 24) (20.2% of domestic fresh supply)

- Central FL: 2 frost days during Bud Break (Feb 1-2, low 22°F) (5.8% of domestic fresh supply)

> Action: Assess bloom/bud damage within 48 hours and document affected blocks with photos. If you carry crop insurance (APH/WFRP): notify your agent within 72 hours — do not destroy damaged crop before adjuster inspection.

Overlap Pressure Index (OPI)

The OPI estimates how many pounds of fresh blueberries are hitting the market in the same weeks across all tracked regions. When multiple regions harvest simultaneously, the supply glut compresses FOB pricing — growers become price-takers. A higher OPI means more overlap and more pricing pressure. (For context, the 2023 cherry season saw ~70% of US volume land in a single month, collapsing FOB prices and leaving ~35% of the crop unharvested.)

Source: Open-Meteo GDD projections + USDA NASS production weights + USDA FAS import volumes

- Supply overlap trending 11% below historical average — Risk: Low

- Current peak OPI: 317M lbs (week 26)

- Historical peak: 355M lbs

- Peak window: weeks 15–38 (Apr–Sep)

Active Import Windows

Source: USDA FAS annual reports

- Mexico: 150.0M lbs annually, 15% of US fresh (IN PEAK)

Chill Risk

Source: Open-Meteo hourly temps, Utah model (Richardson 1974)

- Chill % of target needed for normal bloom — below 90% risks delayed/uneven flowering, below 70% risks reduced fruit set

- Regions at risk: Jalisco Mexico (1%, 0% fresh); San Quintín Mexico (10%, 0% fresh); Fresno CA (0%); Corning CA (76%, 4% fresh)

> Action: Low chill may cause staggered bloom timing and reduced fruit set. Expect an extended harvest window with lower peak volumes.

Season Pattern

Source: RMSE across 4 historical years, supply-weighted

- This season's supply trajectory most closely resembles 2022 (58% similarity), when FOB data limited

- Key driver: early CA start

Generated from innov8.ag Market Insights Dashboard. Supply weights: USDA NASS 2023. Import data: USDA FAS.

Disclaimer: Using AI tools is a lot like farming — the best laid plans don't always get you the outcome you planned on. And similar to Mother Nature, AI has a way of humbling us when we least expect it. This brief is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, agronomic, or insurance advice. We're building in the open, so if something looks off, tell us — visit [innov8.ag/market-insights](https://innov8.ag/market-insights) to share feedback or forward to a colleague.

Top Movers by Market Impact

Watsonville, CA: 57d ahead — 17.5M lbs fresh (4.6% of domestic)
SW (Van Buren), MI: 20d ahead — 38.0M lbs fresh (10.1% of domestic)
Willamette Valley, OR: 13d ahead — 58.1M lbs fresh (15.4% of domestic)
Bakersfield, CA: 29d ahead — 20.2M lbs fresh (5.4% of domestic)
Corning, CA: 30d ahead — 14.3M lbs fresh (3.8% of domestic)

Overlap Pressure Index

Risk level: Low. Peak OPI: 317M lbs at week 26 (historical: 355M lbs).

Season Pattern

This season most resembles 2022 (58% similarity). FOB data limited. Key driver: early CA start.

Data sources: USDA NASS, USDA FAS, USDA AMS FOB, Open-Meteo, IBO. Updated daily at innov8.ag/market-insights.

Disclaimer

This data is provided for informational purposes only and should not be used as the sole basis for production, marketing, or financial decisions. Weather models, GDD calculations, and risk assessments are estimates based on publicly available data and may not reflect actual field conditions. Always consult local agricultural extension services, crop advisors, and on-the-ground observations before making decisions that affect your operation.